How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Cusco FC or Draw 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Los Chankas host Cusco FC at home in the Peru Liga 1 on 29 October 2026. Los Chankas sit 14th out of 18 with 12 points from 13 games and a goal difference of minus 15. They are just one point above the relegation-watching FC Cajamarca and one point behind Comerciantes Unidos. Cusco FC sit in a much safer 9th place with 21 points, a +5 goal difference, four points behind Alianza Atlético and level on points with Sport Boys. Both clubs have the same expected goal total for the match – 1.4 each – so the table positions are the main story line.
Los Chankas have struggled to find consistency in their last eight matches, managing only one win, two draws and five defeats. The most recent result was a 4-1 loss away to Deportivo Garcilaso. Before that they beat Asociación Deportiva Tarma 2-1 at home, then drew 0-0 with Atlético Grau away and 1-1 with Cienciano away. They also fell 2-1 at home to FC Cajamarca and suffered a heavy 5-0 defeat away to Sporting Cristal. In those eight games they have scored eight goals and let in twenty, keeping only one clean sheet while failing to score in three matches. Five of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them. The side played just four days ago, so fatigue could be a factor.
Cusco FC have been more balanced in their last eight outings, recording four wins and four losses. Their latest performance was a 3-1 victory over Sporting Cristal at home. Prior to that they lost 2-1 away to Sport Huancayo, then 2-1 at home to Alianza Lima, before bouncing back with a 2-1 away win at FC Cajamarca. They also suffered a 1-0 home loss to FBC Melgar and a 2-0 home win over Club Deportivo Moquegua. On the road they have two wins and two defeats in the last four trips. Across the eight games they have scored twelve and conceded twelve, kept one clean sheet and were shut out once. Six of those matches produced three or more goals and both teams scored in six of them. Their most recent match was five days ago, giving them a slightly longer recovery period than Los Chankas.
The two clubs have met five times before. Los Chankas have won twice, Cusco FC once and two games ended in draws. Those meetings have averaged 3.2 goals per game, indicating that both sides are capable of finding the net. The most recent encounter was a 1-1 draw on 10 May 2026. Given the similar expected goal figures and the history of relatively open games, we can expect another match with both teams scoring and a total around three goals.
We back Cusco FC or a draw at odds of 1.31. The price is shorter than our own reading of the game, giving us a safety net if the match ends level. Both sides have a 75 % chance of scoring and roughly a 40 % chance of scoring twice, so a draw or a Cusco win is a sensible choice. The pick would fail if Los Chankas manage to hold on for a win, especially after a short turnaround, or if the game turns into a low-scoring affair with fewer than two goals. Otherwise the odds look good for our selection.
Recent results
Los Chankas have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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