How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Alianza Atlético or Draw 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Alianza Atlético and 1.0 from Deportivo Garcilaso, so Alianza Atlético come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Alianza Atlético come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Alianza Atlético or Draw. This covers Alianza Atlético or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Alianza Atlético have won four of the last five meetings.
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