Asociación Deportiva Tarma v FC Cajamarca: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Asociación Deportiva Tarma or Draw 75%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.0 goals from Asociación Deportiva Tarma and 1.3 from FC Cajamarca, so Asociación Deportiva Tarma come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Asociación Deportiva Tarma or Draw. This covers Asociación Deportiva Tarma or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.