How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Sport Boys or Draw 70%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Sport Boys and 1.0 from Alianza Atlético, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Sport Boys or Draw. This covers Sport Boys or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.25, which works out at about 80 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Alianza Atlético have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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