How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Atlético Grau to win 36%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Atlético Grau and 0.9 from Alianza Atlético, so Atlético Grau come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Atlético Grau to win. Atlético Grau are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-0.9), and we make them about 37% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.25, which works out at about 44 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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