How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Deportivo Garcilaso to win 34%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Sport Boys and 1.0 from Deportivo Garcilaso, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Deportivo Garcilaso to win. Deportivo Garcilaso shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.0), and we make them about 35% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 34 out of 100. The price on offer is 4.80, which works out at about 21 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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