How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Los Chankas (Draw No Bet) 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Los Chankas and 1.0 from ADC Juan Pablo II, so Los Chankas come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Los Chankas (Draw No Bet). Los Chankas are favoured here (xG 2.0-1.0), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Los Chankas defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.28, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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