How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Sport Huancayo to win 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Sport Huancayo and 0.9 from CD UT Cajamarca, so Sport Huancayo come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Sport Huancayo come into this on three straight wins. CD UT Cajamarca come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Sport Huancayo to win. Sport Huancayo are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-1.0), and we make them about 66% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Sport Huancayo have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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