Coventry v Newcastle: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Coventry to score 1 or fewer 67%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.2 goals from Coventry and 1.5 from Newcastle, so Newcastle come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Coventry to score 1 or fewer. This is about Coventry's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.2 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 67%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.58, which works out at about 63 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.