Liverpool v Man City: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Both teams to score 62%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Liverpool host Manchester City at Anfield on 11 October 2026 in a Premier League clash that could shift the top of the table. Liverpool sit eighth with nine points from five games and a +3 goal difference, just a point clear of Leeds United and level with Hull City below them. City sit top, also on fifteen points but with a +8 goal difference, a single point ahead of Arsenal. Both teams have the same number of points between them and the places around them, so a win for either side would tighten the race at the summit or give Liverpool a boost in the middle of the table.

Liverpool come into this match on a perfect run of three straight wins. In their last eight games they have not lost, winning five and drawing three. The most recent results are a 1-0 win away at Bournemouth, another 1-0 win away at Bournemouth, a 3-1 victory at home over Tottenham Hotspur, a 0-0 draw at home with Fulham, a 2-1 win at home against Atletico Madrid and a 2-0 win away at Ipswich. Across those eight games Liverpool have scored 13 goals and let in six, keeping four clean sheets while failing to find the net only once. Four of the matches produced three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them.

Manchester City arrive after an even stronger spell, five wins in a row. Their last eight outings contain six wins, one draw and one loss. The most recent fixtures are a 5-3 home win over Sunderland, a 1-0 away win at Manchester United, a 1-0 home win over Coventry, a 4-1 away win at Crystal Palace, a 2-1 home win over Bournemouth and a 2-1 home defeat to Aston Villa. In those eight games City have scored 18 and conceded eight, with three clean sheets. Five of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them. Their last three road games have been two wins and a draw, showing they can find the net away from home.

The two clubs have met five times before, each winning two games and sharing one draw. Those meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game, indicating a fairly open style when they face each other. The most recent encounter was a 1-2 defeat for Liverpool on 8 February 2026. Given the similar expected goal figures – 1.5 for Liverpool and 1.6 for City – the pattern of past meetings and the recent attacking displays suggest another game with chances at both ends rather than a defensive shut-out.

Our pick is both teams to score. Both sides are averaging around one and a half goals each and have shown they can score in most of their recent matches. The price of 1.52 is shorter than we feel the game deserves, making it attractive. We think there is a 62 % chance this will happen. For the pick to fail, one team would need to keep a clean sheet, which is less likely given the frequency of both sides scoring in their recent games and the history of open encounters between them.