How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Newcastle to score 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Leeds and 1.3 from Newcastle, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Newcastle to score. This is about Newcastle's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.3 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 76%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Newcastle have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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