Man United v Man City: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Both teams to score 64%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Man United host Manchester City in a Premier League derby on 13 September 2026. United sit 13th with four points from four games and a neutral goal difference, just one point behind Nottingham Forest and level with Sunderland. City are second, twelve points from four games and a +6 goal difference, three places behind Arsenal and four points ahead of Hull City. Both sides are close in the table, but City have the better record and the numbers suggest they are the stronger side. The match could move United up the table or keep City’s chase for the title alive.

United have been impressive at home lately. In their last four home games they have won every match, scoring five against Ipswich, three against Brighton, three against Nottingham Forest and keeping a clean sheet in the Ipswich game. Over their last eight games, home and away, they have five wins, two draws and one loss, scoring 18 goals and conceding 11. They kept two clean sheets and failed to score in two games. Most of those games have been high-scoring, with six featuring three or more goals and both sides finding the net in five of them.

City arrive on a three-game winning streak. Their recent results include a 1-0 win over Coventry, a 4-1 victory at Crystal Palace, a 2-1 win over Bournemouth, a 3-0 home win over Crystal Palace and a 1-1 draw away at Bournemouth. In their last eight games they have five wins, two draws and one loss, scoring 18 and conceding only eight. They have kept three clean sheets and, like United, have been involved in six games with three or more goals, both sides scoring in five of those. Their last road outing was a win, and they played eight days ago.

In the last five meetings between the two Manchester clubs each side has won twice with one draw, and the games have averaged 2.4 goals. The most recent encounter was a 2-0 win for United on 17 January 2026. Given the recent form and the history of open, goal-filled matches, we expect another game with chances at both ends rather than a defensive stalemate.

Our pick is both teams to score. United are expected to score about 1.4 goals and City about 1.8, and the chance of both sides finding the net is 64 per cent. The price of 1.50 is shorter than our reading, which makes it attractive. For the pick to fail, one side would have to keep a clean sheet – either United failing to score or City being shut out – which seems unlikely given the recent scoring trends of both teams.