What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Sunderland and 1.6 from Arsenal, so Arsenal come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Arsenal to win. Arsenal shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.6), and we make them about 63% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.53, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Sunderland a draw or better. We make it about 63% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
