How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Arsenal to win 61%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Sunderland and 1.5 from Arsenal, so Arsenal come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Arsenal come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Arsenal to win. Arsenal shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.5), and we make them about 62% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.52, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Arsenal have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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