What to expect
We expect about 3.1 goals from Man City and 0.8 from Ipswich, so Man City come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Man City come into this on four straight wins. Ipswich come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Man City to win. Man City are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.1-0.8), and we make them about 86% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 85 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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