How it turned out
We projected about 3.7 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Man City win & Over 1.5 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.9 goals from Man City and 0.8 from Ipswich, so Man City come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Man City win & Over 1.5. Man City to win, with goals — what shapes up as an open, high-scoring game (xG 2.9-0.8). The result and the goals line point the same way here.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Man City have won two of the last two meetings.
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