How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Both teams to score 63%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Newcastle and 1.4 from Aston Villa, so Newcastle come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.7-1.4), and we make both teams to score about 63%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.53, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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