How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 56%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Aston Villa host Nottingham Forest at Villa Park on 12 September 2026. Villa sit 19th in the league with just one point from their last four games and a -6 goal difference, staring at the relegation zone. Forest are mid-table in 11th, five points from four games and a neutral goal difference. One place separates Villa from safety – Fulham sit just above them – while Coventry sit just below. Forest sit three places above Leeds and one above Brighton, so both clubs have something to prove. The numbers show Villa as the stronger side, but both clubs are likely to find the net.
Villa have been on a short run of two wins. Their last eight matches include a 3-2 win away at Club Brugge, another 3-2 win at the same opponent, a 0-0 draw away to Hull, a 1-0 loss at home to Arsenal, a 4-0 loss away to Brighton and a 2-1 win away at Manchester City. In those eight games they have scored 15 and let in 12. They kept two clean sheets but failed to score in three matches. Six of the games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them. The side played only four days ago, so they will be on a short turnaround.
Forest have not won in their last four outings, drawing twice and losing twice. Their most recent eight fixtures are a 0-0 home draw with Tottenham, a 2-2 away draw with Liverpool, a 1-0 home loss to Leeds, a 1-1 home draw with Bournemouth, a 3-2 away loss to Manchester United and a 1-1 home draw with Newcastle. Over those eight games they have scored 14 and conceded 9. They kept two clean sheets and were shut out twice. Four of the matches saw three or more goals and both sides scored in five. Their last game was a week ago, a 0-0 stalemate with Tottenham, showing they can hold opponents but also struggle to break the deadlock.
The two clubs have met five times before. Villa have won three of those meetings, Forest have won one and one ended in a draw. The games have been high-scoring, averaging 3.6 goals each. The most recent encounter was a 1-1 draw on 12 April 2026. Given the history of open games and the fact that both sides have been involved in matches with several goals, we expect another lively contest with chances at both ends.
We back both teams to score. Villa average 1.5 goals and Forest 1.3, and the chance of both sides finding the net sits at 56 per cent. The price of 1.76 matches our view of the game. For our pick to fail, both defenses would need to hold firm and produce a clean-sheet result, which is unlikely given the recent goal-rich outings. A goal from either side should be enough to keep the bet alive.
Recent results
Aston Villa have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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