What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Nott'm Forest and 1.4 from Arsenal, so Arsenal come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Arsenal to win. Arsenal shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.5), and we make them about 58% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.60, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Nott'm Forest have won one of their last five.
✓Arsenal have won four of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in one of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
17 Jan 2026Nott'm Forest 0 - 0 Arsenal
13 Sept 2025Arsenal 3 - 0 Nott'm Forest
26 Feb 2025Nott'm Forest 0 - 0 Arsenal
23 Nov 2024Arsenal 3 - 0 Nott'm Forest
30 Jan 2024Nott'm Forest 1 - 2 Arsenal
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