What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Nott'm Forest and 1.7 from Man City, so Man City come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Man City come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Man City to win. Man City shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.7), and we make them about 59% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.74, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Man City have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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