How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Academico Viseu (Draw No Bet) 65%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Academico Viseu and 0.9 from Santa Clara, so Academico Viseu come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Academico Viseu (Draw No Bet). Academico Viseu are favoured here (xG 1.6-0.9), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Academico Viseu defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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