What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Arouca and 1.2 from Nacional, so Arouca come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Arouca or Draw. This covers Arouca or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.21, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Arouca have won four of the last four meetings.
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