What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from Benfica and 0.8 from Alverca, so Benfica come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Benfica come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.2 goals between the two (xG 2.3-0.8), landing about 69% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Benfica have won two of the last two meetings.
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