How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Benfica to win 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Benfica and 0.9 from Guimaraes, so Benfica come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Benfica to win. Benfica are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.6-0.7), and we make them about 79% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.22, which works out at about 82 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Benfica have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
