How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Rio Ave to score 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Rio Ave and 1.4 from Nacional, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Nacional come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Rio Ave to score. This is about Rio Ave's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.5 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 78%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last four meetings are split 1-1, with two drawn.
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