How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 1. We made Not both teams to score 58%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Casa Pia and 1.2 from Santa Clara, so Santa Clara come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 2.0 goals between the two (xG 0.8-1.2). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Santa Clara have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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