How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Estoril to score 2 or fewer 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Estoril and 0.9 from Casa Pia, so Estoril come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Estoril to score 2 or fewer. This is about Estoril's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.7 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 74%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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