What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Guimaraes and 0.9 from Moreirense, so Guimaraes come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Moreirense come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 2.4 goals between the two (xG 1.4-0.9). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Guimaraes have won one of their last five.
✓Moreirense have won one of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in one of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
30 Jan 2026Guimaraes 1 - 0 Moreirense
23 Aug 2025Moreirense 2 - 0 Guimaraes
30 Mar 2025Moreirense 2 - 2 Guimaraes
3 Nov 2024Guimaraes 1 - 0 Moreirense
30 Mar 2024Guimaraes 1 - 0 Moreirense
