How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Guimaraes to score 2 or fewer 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Guimaraes and 1.0 from Moreirense, so Guimaraes come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Guimaraes to score 2 or fewer. This is about Guimaraes's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.4 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 79%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Guimaraes have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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