How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Porto to score 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Porto and 1.3 from Benfica, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Porto come into this on five straight wins. Benfica come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Porto to score. This is about Porto's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.4 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 77%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Benfica have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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