What to expect
Our pick: Sp Lisbon to win. Sp Lisbon shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-2.5), and we make them about 81% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Estrela to spoil this. We make it about 81% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
