How it turned out
The game finished with 4 goals. Both teams scored. We made Sp Lisbon to win 80%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Estrela come into this on two straight draws. Sp Lisbon come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Sp Lisbon to win. Sp Lisbon shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-2.5), and we make them about 81% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Sp Lisbon have won five of the last five meetings.
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