How it turned out
The game finished with 2 goals. We made Under 3.5 goals 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. Low-scoring lean. The model projects about 2.7 in total.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Porto have won four of their last five.
✓Alverca have won one of their last five.
Recent meetings
2 May 2026Porto 1 - 0 Alverca
22 Dec 2025Alverca 0 - 3 Porto
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