How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Famalicao and 0.9 from Alverca, so Famalicao come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Alverca come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Alverca to score 1 or fewer. This is about Alverca's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.8 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 76%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.28, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last two meetings are split 1-1, with no drawn.
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