What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Gil Vicente and 0.8 from Casa Pia, so Gil Vicente come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Gil Vicente (Draw No Bet). Gil Vicente are favoured here (xG 1.7-0.8), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Gil Vicente defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Casa Pia win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 78% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
