How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Porto to win 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Porto and 0.8 from Arouca, so Porto come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Porto come into this on three straight wins. Arouca come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Porto to win. Porto are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.8), and we make them about 74% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.24, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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