What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from Porto and 0.8 from Arouca, so Porto come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Arouca come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Porto to win. Porto are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.8), and we make them about 76% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Arouca to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 76%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
