How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Moreirense to score 1 or fewer 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Moreirense and 1.3 from Gil Vicente, so Gil Vicente come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Moreirense to score 1 or fewer. This is about Moreirense's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 73%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Gil Vicente have won three of the last five meetings.
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