How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Sp Braga and 1.5 from Sp Lisbon, so Sp Lisbon come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Sp Lisbon come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.1 goals between the two (xG 1.3-1.8), landing about 75% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Sp Lisbon have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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