What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Atl. Tucuman and 1.0 from Belgrano, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Belgrano come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 1.9 goals in total (xG 0.9-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 62%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. The price is shorter than our own read of about 62%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
