How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Under 2.5 goals 58%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from River Plate and 1.0 from Argentinos Jrs, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
River Plate come into this on five straight defeats. Argentinos Jrs come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.1 goals in total (xG 1.1-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 60%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Argentinos Jrs have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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