What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Sarmiento Junin and 1.1 from Huracan, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Sarmiento Junin come into this on two straight wins. Huracan come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 1.9 goals between the two (xG 0.9-1.0), landing about 65% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
If chances go begging or a red card tightens things up, the goals may simply not come. At around 65% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
