How it turned out
We projected about 1.8 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Lanus to score 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Lanus host Estudiantes L.P. in a Primera División clash on 22 September 2026. Lanus sit mid-table, while Estudiantes are 11th of 15 with ten points from nine games and a neutral goal difference. San Lorenzo sit just one point above them and Deportivo Riestra one point below, so a win could move Estudiantes up the ladder. The two sides are almost equal on the numbers we have, which points to a tight, low-scoring affair.
Lanus have played eight games in their recent run, winning three, drawing one and losing four. Their last two results are victories: a 3-0 away win at Deportivo Riestra followed by a 1-0 home win over Defensa y Justicia. Before that they lost 1-0 away to Boca Juniors, drew 1-1 at home with Argentinos Jrs, fell 3-1 at home to Independiente and beat Talleres Córdoba 3-0 away. In those eight matches Lanus have scored ten goals and let in eight. They kept three clean sheets but also failed to find the net twice. Four of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in three of them.
Estudiantes L.P. also arrive on the back of two wins. Their most recent success was a 1-0 away victory over Corinthians, preceded by a 2-1 home win against Platense. Earlier they drew 1-1 with Corinthians at home, lost 1-0 away to Vélez Sarsfield, held Newell’s Old Boys 0-0 at home and were beaten 2-0 away by Sarmiento Junín. Over their last eight fixtures they have three wins, two draws and three defeats, scoring eight and conceding seven. They have kept three clean sheets but have been shut out four times. Only two of those games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in two of them.
In the five meetings between the clubs the results have been evenly split: Lanus have won twice, Estudiantes twice and one game ended in a draw. The encounters have produced an average of 2.8 goals. The most recent meeting was a 2-1 win for Lanus on 25 May 2024. Given the recent form of both teams and the historical balance, we expect another close contest with few chances, likely decided by a single goal.
Our pick is Lanus to score. The chance of Lanus finding the net is about 71 %, and our own view puts the success rate at 69 %. The price of 1.35 is shorter than we think the game deserves, which makes the bet attractive. For the pick to fail, Lanus would have to be shut out, which would require a very tight defensive display from Estudiantes and perhaps a missed opportunity in front of goal. If the match stays low-scoring as expected, Lanus scoring once should be enough to make our wager work.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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