What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Belgrano and 0.8 from Defensa y Justicia, so Belgrano come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Belgrano come into this on three straight wins. Defensa y Justicia come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.4 goals between the two (xG 1.6-0.8), landing about 67% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
If chances go begging or a red card tightens things up, the goals may simply not come. We make it about 67% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
