What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from River Plate and 0.8 from Velez Sarsfield, so River Plate come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
River Plate come into this on two straight wins. Velez Sarsfield come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 1.9 goals in total (xG 1.1-0.8), keeping it under more often than not (about 63%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.52, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. We make it about 64% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
