How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Over 1.5 goals 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Sarmiento Junin and 1.2 from Estudiantes L.P., so Estudiantes L.P. come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Sarmiento Junin come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.2 goals (xG 1.0-1.2), and two is enough to land it, landing about 68% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.50, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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