What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Boca Juniors and 0.8 from Defensa y Justicia, so Boca Juniors come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Boca Juniors come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Boca Juniors to win. Boca Juniors are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.8), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Boca Juniors have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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