What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Boca Juniors and 0.8 from Lanus, so Boca Juniors come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Lanus come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.1 goals in total (xG 1.3-0.7), keeping it under more often than not (about 61%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. The price is shorter than our own read of about 61%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
