How it turned out
The game finished with 2 goals. We made Over 1.5 goals 62%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Estudiantes L.P. come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. Goals expected. The model projects about 1.6 in total.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.89, which works out at about 53 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Dep. Riestra have won two of their last five.
✓Estudiantes L.P. have won one of their last five.
✓Three of the last three meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in no of the last three meetings.
Recent meetings
8 Aug 2026Dep. Riestra 2 - 0 Estudiantes L.P.
9 Feb 2026Estudiantes L.P. 1 - 0 Dep. Riestra
20 May 2024Estudiantes L.P. 2 - 0 Dep. Riestra
One thing to watch
An early goal can kill the tempo just as easily as spark it, and a quiet second half leaves this short. We make it about 62%: a lean, not a lock.
