How it turned out
We projected about 1.5 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 63%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Dep. Riestra and 0.8 from Velez Sarsfield, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.5 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Velez Sarsfield come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 1.5 goals in total (xG 0.8-0.8), keeping it under more often than not (about 65%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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