What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Union de Santa Fe and 1.1 from Sarmiento Junin, so Union de Santa Fe come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Union de Santa Fe come into this on two straight defeats. Sarmiento Junin come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.6 goals in total (xG 1.6-1.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 56%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. The price is shorter than our own read of about 56%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
