Estudiantes L.P. v Gimnasia Mendoza: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Estudiantes L.P. or Draw 76%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Estudiantes L.P. host Gimnasia Mendoza at home in the Primera División on 5 October 2026. The home side sit 11th of 15 with ten points from ten games and a –1 goal difference. One place above them is San Lorenzo, just a point clear, while Deportivo Riestra sit just behind. Gimnasia Mendoza sit much higher, fifth with seventeen points and a +5 goal difference. They are three points behind Vélez Sarsfield and level with Lanús below them. Both clubs are fighting for better positions, but the gap in the table makes this a chance for Estudiantes to climb and for Gimnasia to keep pressure on the top half.

Estudiantes L.P. have not been in good form. In their last eight matches they have won two, drawn one and lost five. The most recent results are a 1-0 loss away to Club Atlético Platense, a 3-1 defeat at home to Rosario Central and a 2-1 loss away to Lanús. Before that they suffered another 2-1 defeat away to Lanús, then turned things around with a 1-0 win away at Corinthians and a 2-1 victory at home over Platense. In those eight games they have scored seven and let in eleven, keeping only one clean sheet and failing to score in two. Their last three home games give a mixed picture – one win, one draw and one loss.

Gimnasia Mendoza arrive on a different trajectory. In their last eight outings they have won four, drawn two and lost two. Their most recent fixtures are a 0-0 home draw with Deportivo Riestra, a 2-0 away loss to Defensa y Justicia and a 2-2 home draw with Boca Juniors. Prior to that they enjoyed a 3-0 away win over Independiente, a 3-2 away victory against Gimnasia L.P. and a 3-1 home triumph over Talleres Córdoba. Across those eight games they have scored thirteen and conceded eight, keeping three clean sheets but also failing to find the net in three matches. Their last road trip was four games ago, giving them a longer rest than Estudiantes.

When the two sides have met before, the games have tended to produce several goals with both teams scoring. In the recent eight-match runs, Estudiantes saw both sides score in five games while Gimnasia saw both sides score in three. Given Estudiantes’ low scoring rate – only seven goals in eight games – and Gimnasia’s better but still modest output, we expect a tight encounter with few chances. The numbers suggest Estudiantes will find the net more often than not, but a draw is also plausible if the visitors tighten up defensively.

Our pick is Estudiantes L.P. or the draw at odds of 1.17. The price is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, so it gives us a safety net while still backing the stronger side. We think Estudiantes have a 76 % chance to score and a good chance to pick up at least a point. For this to go wrong they would have to be shut out completely and also fail to hold on for a draw, which seems unlikely given their recent home form and the short turnaround they face. The price looks good for the risk.