What to expect
We expect about 0.7 goals from Estudiantes Rio Cuarto and 1.1 from Atl. Tucuman, so Atl. Tucuman come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Atl. Tucuman (Draw No Bet). Atl. Tucuman are favoured here (xG 0.7-1.0), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Atl. Tucuman defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.85, which works out at about 54 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Estudiantes Rio Cuarto win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 61%: a lean, not a lock.
