How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 60%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Lanus and 0.9 from Independiente, so Lanus come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Independiente come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.0 goals in total (xG 1.1-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 62%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Independiente have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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