How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Not both teams to score 56%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Velez Sarsfield and 0.8 from Defensa y Justicia, so Velez Sarsfield come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 2.4 goals between the two (xG 1.6-0.8). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Velez Sarsfield have won one of the last five meetings, with four drawn.
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