What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Velez Sarsfield and 0.8 from Defensa y Justicia, so Velez Sarsfield come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Velez Sarsfield come into this on two straight draws. Defensa y Justicia come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 2.4 goals between the two (xG 1.6-0.8). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Both these sides carry some threat, so one moment at either end spoils it. The price is shorter than our own read of about 59%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
